Predictive modeling in the Abancay snow-capped mountains using Arima analysis: projections to 2030
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Abstract
This paper focuses on the analysis of the accelerated decline of the snowcaps in Abancay, a phenomenon driven by rising temperatures and irregular precipitation patterns. This reduction not only signifies a significant loss of ice mass but also threatens the availability of water for local communities that depend on these snowcaps as a vital source of water resources. Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the study aims to map the evolution of the snowcaps to gain a better understanding of the geographical impact of climate change in the region. The system forecasts a 30.17% reduction in snowcaps, a 9.06% decrease in precipitation, and an annual temperature increase of 0.7°C by 2030. Additionally, adaptation strategies for climate change and ecosystem conservation are proposed to mitigate these effects, ensuring the sustainability and resilience of communities in the face of snowcap loss and water scarcity.
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